Monthly Review – February 2011

The start of any month is a hectic time for me as I look back over the previous month and conduct various reviews. I have been updating numerous spreadsheets and webpages all morning and now I think this is the last of the reviews I need to get done. It’s also one of the most important so it’s worth taking the time to get it right.

Overview
February’s results are dominated by that draw in the West Brom-Wolves match the other week as that netted me a very tidy profit thanks to the Prem Simplex system. The stakes on that bet (and the previous few bets really) had got to the point where they were dwarfing my other bets so were almost single-handedly deciding whether or not I had a profitable time. That system is all wrapped up and put to bed for a while now though.

Other than that my main impression of how February went (and I haven’t checked the figures at this stage) is that it was a relatively quiet month. It was one of those “win a bit here, lose a bit there” months without any really swingy days until right near the end of the month. Or at least that’s how I thought it went but let’s have a look shall we…yeah, more or less. The first few days showed some volatility but after that things settled down into a steady win/loss pattern. A fairly steady, quiet month then.

Horses
The First Timer system was dropped fairly rapidly following last month’s review and with nothing to replace it (yet!) it’s 16 systems/services that go to post this month and the split is 10/6 in favour of the profitable ones. The lay systems in my portfolio had a strong month with Easy Money Lays topping the bill with a 20.60pts profit. This is followed up by strong performances by NHPM (+15.55pts) and Lay’em (+10.75pts). It’s not all about the lays though as LTO3 and Claiming Jockey both weighed in with decent months returning profits of 8.85pts and 5.80pts respectively. My spreadsheet is indicating LTO3 could take a higher stake but I am waiting to gather and analyse a bit more data before I go down that route.

The biggest loss gets chalked up to Northern Monkey who dropped 12.76pts according to my figures, which are slightly better than the official figures of -14.71pts. I should be grateful for small mercies. There were also losses for ProBandit’s A List (the end result of -3.25pts is much better than it looked like being but for a couple of winners on the last day of the month), plus two of the NailedOn services, HSR dropping -4.20pts while Progeny lost 7.97pts. I know losing runs are part of the game but the Progeny service has been worrying me slightly of late so I am putting it on the Watch List as it needs to step it up soon.

Incidentally the NailedOn AW service ended the month exactly level. There was a 25/1 winner on that towards the end of the month but it still wasn’t enough to ensure a profit.

Now comes an awkward bit for me. Classic Lays and Premier Lays had awful months with losses of 8.47pts and 10.41pts respectively but this is not the first time it has happened. Both have been in the red at the end of the previous four months now and, despite promising starts, neither has lived up to the kind of performance level I expect. So what to do? With any other system/service I’d drop them without a second thought but these systems are the backbone of the Unity Racing tipster service I run. I made the difficult decision this morning to recommend that Unity Racing members stop following the Classic Lays and Premier Lays and maintain a watching brief until such time as the systems show they are truly profitable. On that basis I ought to suspend my own betting on these systems in which case the systems are added to the Watch List Plus with immediate effect. Now watch them rack up serious profits for the next few months.

Football
As previously discussed, this month’s football betting is dominated by the Prem Simplex bets, closing out with that West Brom-Wolves match that was good for a total monthly profit of 7,258.90. Over the course of the season that one system has made nearly 6,500pts profit and while it got a tad scary at times it has a ROI of over 50% now based on data from the past three seasons so is a nice little earner. The SPL Simplex is all wrapped up for this season now but the Serie A Simplex ticks on still with Cagliari and Inter Milan still outstanding. Those two are the drivers behind a loss of 2,909.20pts this month but when both sequences end the profits will be more than enough to counter that loss.

Last month my football tipsters were suffering and things haven’t got any better for FBD with a further loss of 5.05pts this month. I have said before that I am not 100% sure I am getting the best from this service but I am letting it run to the end of the season before investigating too much further. It was a return to form for Football Elite though, a profit of 6.05pts going a long way to recovering January’s losses. The FE Shortlist bets were less sure-footed though, losing 2.70pts.

Sports
Sports Bet USA, the old Linebacker service from Oxon Press, is still struggling and recorded another loss this month, dropping 3.26pts. A couple of points better than last month admittedly but I’m still not convinced the decision to extend the NFL service to more US sports was a wise one. Time will tell. The Insider lost 6.00pts this month but that’s not at all atypical for this service which tends to hit winners in patches amongst the steady losses. Bet Bank Alerts is the one that interests me most this month though. I made a profit of 4.23pts on this service according to my figures but that is some way short of the official profit of 8.10pts. I didn’t think I had done badly getting the prices and so on but I don’t have time to go back and double-check all the BBA bets to make sure they are not trying to pull a fast one on me.

Poker
None.

Other
None.

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  1. March 2, 2011 at 6:29 pm

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