Monthly Review – January 2011

It seems a little odd to be doing a review of January in mid-February but it makes sense to look back at the opening month of the year in order to get some idea of how I got where I am now. This review also means I will have reviews from the very start of the new year and I like that idea a lot.

January felt like a pretty poor month. It felt like one of those months were little went right. It was also a short month for me as I had the last two weeks of the month off for abdominal surgery. The figures show that there were a few decent winners in January but it didn’t feel that way so perhaps those winners came in the early part of the month and were followed by a poor run which took the shine off the previous results.

What’s more it felt like it wasn’t just one sport or aspect of the portfolio that was struggling in January. It felt like the horses, football and sports bets were all going south. Let’s have a better look at the various systems/services to see how they did.

Of the 17 systems/services that had bets in January it was a 6/11 split in favour of those recording a loss. Interestingly the flat seemed to outperform the NH too in what is traditionally jumps season with the only flat coming on the AW. LTO3 recorded a profit of 4.15pts while there were solid pick-ups for A List (+2.21pts) and the Lay’em laying system (+2.96pts). The big win, however, came from NailedOn AW with 35.03pts added to the kitty this month thanks largely to winners at 38.00, 32.00 and 40/1 but there were also long losing runs inbetween those juicy winners. Interestingly the 40/1 came on the 16th January, towards the end of the period my betting covered, so the month perhaps shouldn’t have felt as bleak as it did. NH winners came in the form of two laying systems with Ladies Lays making 7.68pts and NHPM profiting to the tune of 19.69pts.

The biggest loser of the month was the NailedOn Lays losing 27.97pts. Not far behind was the Progeny service (-19.37pts) but the low SR means runs like that do happen so it’s not a massive cause for concern. Slightly (and only slightly) concerning is the performance of Northern Monkey, dropping 7.33pts. This does follow on from a December that saw a profit of over 17pts so as I say, it’s only slightly worrying.

The performance of the three Unity Racing lay systems is also a tad concerning, not because of the losses they recorded this month (Classic Lays down 4.32pts, Premier Lays down 5.15pts and Market Leaders down 3.64pts) but because this represents a continuation of the poor results from the end of last year. These systems need to return to profitability soon!

Easy Money Lays, Claiming Jockey, Info Rated, NH Media and HSR all lost less than 3pts this month which is neither here nor there really.

The bulk of January’s football betting is dominated by the three Simplex systems. The SPL Simplex system drew to a close for this season with the draw between Aberdeen and Dundee Unitd on new year’s day for a profit of 185.48pts. The Serie A Simplex system still rumbles on for a couple of teams although it was still able to record a 120pts profit in January. But then comes the biggie: Prem Simplex and the loss of 1718.86pts that recorded this month. This is largely due to Wolverhampton Wanderers and unless the run of games without a draw ends soon (it is 18 games at the time of writing) this system will continue to rack up large monthly losses.

January saw the plug being pulled on the Soccer Systems portfolio systems, at last. The plan had been to continue following all the systems to low stakes until the end of the season but a 47.40pts loss for the Under Form system combined with losses of 21.23pts for UO Streaks and 15.18pts for Away Form was sufficient to convince me that enough was enough and all the systems were placed on the Watch List Plus with immediate effect.

Things weren’t great in the world of football tipsters either. FBD suffered a 1.75pt setback while the normally excellent Football Elite hit a shocking run costing 8.09pts. Fortunately December had seen a profit of 7.94pts for Football Elite members so as a result we were effectively back where we ended November.

A number of NFL ante-post bets recommended by the old Linebacker service, now Sports Bet USA, were settled in January and few of them were winners unfortunately. Such bets have been a happy hunting ground for this service in previous years so let’s hope their touch hasn’t deserted them now they have taken on the other US sports too. These ante-post losers combined with a few other selections made for a 5.60pts loss. The other Oxon Press sports services also suffered losses in January, Bet Bank Alerts dropping 3.09pts while The Insider lost 4.75pts.

My desperation to conquer the micro-stakes no-limit cash games in the hopeless belief that I cannot class myself as a true poker player until such time as I can boast a profit from no-limit cash games cost me 310.60pts this month, where 1pt is a big blind so a little over three buy-ins really. Things were somewhat better at the Rush Poker tables, -16.60pts, but it’s still not a profit is it?


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