Monthly Review – July 2011

Overview
July was yet another month where I missed my profit target by a long way which now has me doubting whether my targets are realistic. Initially these figures were based on how much I needed to bring in during an average month to pay the bills and what have you. I accept that I won’t hit this figure every month as profits are rarely spread nicely throughout the year but so long as I was making decent strides towards these target figures each month I would be happy. But that’s just not happening at the moment. The last time I got anywhere close to where I want to be was back in March and since then I have barely made any profit whatsoever. Losing months in July and May have all but wiped out the profits from April and June.

The ROI of my current portfolio is lower than I would like it to be, that’s for sure. SBC have taught me that for backing systems/services I should be looking for ROIs of  10% or more but thereare a number of laying systems in my portfolio which will bring the overall figure down so the fact that it is in single figures doesn’t worry me. However, I would still like it to be greater than it is. With a lower ROI than I had expected I would have to increase my turnover (stakes) to meet my profit targets. But my ROI is lower than expected because a number of services in my portfolio aren’t delivering the sort of performance I require so why would I increase stakes there? And many of the services that are delivering are fairly new members of the portfolio and I am reluctant to increase stakes on them too much because I simply don’t have enough data to know if this level of performance can be maintained. A downturn at higher stakes is just going to set me back further and compound the problem really.

One thing is for sure: at my current ROI (which has remained fairly stable for a few months now) my profit targets are out of reach unless I significantly increase my turnover. The question is whether or not I can do that without taking undue risks. At this point I don’t know the answer to that one.

Horses
Looking over the figures for July there is one tipster that stands head and shoulders above the rest: Piecost and his tips from the SBC forum. A profit of 61.65pts in a single month is absolutely staggering – and yet despite this I made an overall loss in July. I guess this just goes to show that it’s not just picking the right tipsters but getting the stakes balanced too. My stakes for Piecost’s selections are just a fraction of the stakes used for some other, more established services. That’s not to say Piecost doesn’t have a good track record, he most certainly does, but I have been following his advice for a few months as such I am still building up my own picture of his service and what I can expect from it. Until I have a clear idea of the potential ups and downs and things like how easy I find it to obtain the advised odds and so on my stakes will remain low compared to services I have been following for much longer.

Not many other profitable systems or services to mention this month. NHPM Lays managed a tidy profit of 10.32pts to make it a third consecutive month of juicy profits and takes the total so far this year to just under 50pts. Northern Monkey weighed in with a profit of 6.13pts which was enough to see it back into the black for the year after a dreadful start to 2011 while Winning Racing Tips continues to do what it says on the tin, delivering it’s fifth profitable month in a row at 0.88pts. It may not be much but it all counts.

There are no massive losses to talk about this month, at least not in point terms anyway. ProBandit’s A List is one of my most heavily staked services and disappointed in July with a loss of 5.80pts. That one hurt and this service has yet to really get going this year, the annual figures now showing a loss of 5.26pts for 2011. The subscription fees for this service are not cheap, which is part of the reason for the larger stakes, and based on past performance the service is capable of delivering much better results than we’re seeing at the minute. I would suggest that a significant turnaround in fortunes is required here. That wasn’t the biggest point loss of the month though. That honour belongs to the Ladies Lays system which lost 6.28pts. It is the summer though and this is a National Hunt lay system so perhaps a poor month can be forgiven. July 2010 saw a loss of 5.26pts on the same system although in previous years the month has been a profitable one so who knows. Racing Angles is in the same ballpark with a loss of 6.00pts as its shortlisting approach failed to pick out winners in the Coral-Eclipse, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Stewards’ Cup. Following those we have Lay’em (racking up a third losing month in a row with -5.53pts), LTO3 (-3.63pts), Claiming Jockey with a loss of 3.00pts, NH Media which dropped 2.00pts and the loss of a single point for the Info Rated system. I also added a couple of new laying systems this month – Blinkered and Blinkered AW – based around some research I read recently which highlighted a trend that seemed to produce profitable lays. The former started life with a loss of 3.02pts while the latter didn’t throw up any selections. Incidentally Sportsman Racing were still on their summer break so no profit or loss there.

As the Lay’em system is my most heavily staked lay system I want to just have a bit more of a look at this month’s figures. A loss of 5.53pts isn’t anything too worrying but it is the third losing month in a row. What’s more, at one stage this month I was up 27.77pts on these lays so to end with a loss is rather frustrating. On the face of it I can’t see what went wrong. There were 131 bets of which 112 were winners for a strike rate of 85.50%, which is slightly below average but not really indicative of a broken system. The average odds (7.89) and average win odds (6.93) are in line with previous months so there is no obvious indicator as to why this has stopped banging in profits. Could this be a statistical correction to the performance registered earlier in the year? At the minute the system is only just profitable in 2011 (+2.80pts) and the increase in stakes seems to have coincided with a downturn in performance. This is certainly one to keep an eye on but I don’t yet see the need to add it to the Watch List. Another losing month, however, and that could easily change.

Football
I really don’t get it. The SPL season started in July but that’s not so they could fit in a winter break or finish early ahead of a major international competition as far as I can tell. What’s more some of the team were playing friendlies against English opposition prior to the start of the Premiership season. Call me old-fashioned but I am firmly of the opinion that once competitive fixtures start you shouldn’t be playing friendlies. Anyway, the early fixtures were enough for the SPL Simplex system to rack up 15.12pts of profit. None of the other football services or systems saw any action in July.

Sports
With The Sportsman on their summer break still July was a quiet month for sports betting. Sports Bet USA tops the list of losers with a chunky drop of 7.35pts. I am seriously beginning to doubt the wisdom of Oxfordshire Press expanding their Linebacker service to include other American sports as the results just aren’t there like they were for the NFL. Not far behind was The Insider with a loss of 7.05pts. As I said last month, this is pretty typical of this service – steadily losing until such time as it lands a couple of handy winners, usually at decent odds too. So it was just left to Bet Bank Alerts to register any sort of profit in July, managing 2.02pts which is steady but unremarkable.

Other
None.

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  1. September 28, 2011 at 12:04 pm

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