Monthly Review – June 2011

Overview
I don’t know whether I am pleased June is over or not. It was a bit of a strange month but in the world of professional gambling that makes it all the more ordinary as each month seems packed with incident and oddity. The month got off to a good start and for the first 10 days or so things looked very good. It looked like I would more than make up for the shortfall recorded in May and register a very tidy profit on top of that but then the worm turned and a few rough days took away a lot of the profit I had accumulated to that point. A period of give and take followed and then came Black Saturday, by far my worst ever day on the horses and a really painful day that saw me take a massive step into the red for the month with only a few days left to recover. But recover I did and somehow managed to squeak into the black for June, which I regard as quite miraculous given how bad Black Saturday was. Don’t get me wrong, the recovery wasn’t anywhere near enough to convince me at this stage that I won’t end up rejoining the nine-to-five but it was welcome nonetheless.

My portfolio remained settled this month. I did drop a couple of services but they wouldn’t have had any impact on this month’s figures. I reviewed the Football Elite Shortlist bets and decided they were not for me but as it is close season there was no action on that front anyway. The other services to fall by the wayside was Double Top, an offering from Win2Win that hadn’t seen a selection since some time last year and this month I finally got confirmation that it was no more. Ditching that one hasn’t affected my portfolio at all, it’s just tidying up a few loose ends really.

During June I finally completed the comprehensive set of reviews for the football betting systems I was running on the Soccer Systems blog and as such I felt justified in taking the various systems of the Watch List Plus and officially reclassifying them as discontinued services.  I suppose that means they were also removed from my portfolio this month but it doesn’t feel that way as they hadn’t been an active part of my portfolio for several months now. Again, dropping these systems was just a bit of housekeeping really.

Horses
The Lay’em system opens proceedings again this month and gets a whole paragraph to itself to boot. I mentioned last month that May was a staggeringly bad month for this laying system and was made all the more disappointing by the fact that April was a stunning month and I had increased my stakes to make this system comfortably my largest lay bank. I also said last month then when you hit a poor run you almost always question your decision to raise the stakes and I had exactly the same doubts this month too. When the dust from Black Saturday had settled I was over 25pts down on this one system alone and really losing patience. I had spent a good chunk of the month down around 15 or 20pts with each sign of recovery soon stamped out by a big-priced winner. It looked for all the world like another heavy loss was on the cards. It was particularly galling that nothing seemed to be wrong either. The strike rate was normal, the average odds were spot on and there were an average number of selections cropping up. In the end I had to put it down to One Of Those Things and accept it, which can be hard as a professional gambler. You like to think you have an element of control, or at the very least that you have taken steps to prevent everything going wrong at once but situations like this remind you how powerless you really are. I seriously considered cutting stakes on the Lay’em system quite drastically to stem the flow of money out of my accounts but after a bit of thought I decided against it. The system wasn’t broken and was living up to previous performances in terms of SR and average odds and so on, in which case the losses had to be down to bad luck (or natural variance as it ought to be known) and very little else. Luck changes (variance swings) so I stuck to my guns. The system then went on a run of 24 consecutive winning bets to wipe out the majority of the month’s losses, leaving me down 2.91pts. Phew! Given how things stood with only a few days of the month left I was delighted to get away with only a slight loss.

As I started with a losing system I may as well continue that theme and round up the others too. LTO3 lost 5.18pts during June which was a shame as this year’s performance was already fairly disappointing before this month and losing a chunk like that hasn’t helped at all. NH Media suffered its third losing month on the spin, dropping 4.52pts, and quite honestly I have little alternative but to place this one on the Watch List. The SR this year is decent (around 50%) but losses stand at a little over 8pts for the year and that’s just not acceptable. Overall I am not ahead by very much at all on this system which averages something like 2-3pts a year. It’s time for it to come under the spotlight so I can assess whether it is worth continuing with it. The other losers for June were Ladies Lays (down 3.43pts in its third consecutive losing month but this one won’t go on the Watch List as it is laying system whose performance figures look pretty much spot on so I fear it has simply been the victim of a downturn in good fortune so should recover in time), Claiming Jockey (down 3.00pts) and Sportsman Racing (down 1.14pts).

I am delighted to report that after three losing months on the spin, the first of which was pretty chunky too, Piecost pulled it out the bag somewhat this month and the recovery started with a profit of 18.77pts. I get the feeling this may be one I need to show a fair amount of patience towards but I am prepared to do so. Anyway, my stakes on this one are small as I am effectively live trialling my ability to follow these selections to see what I can make of them. There were profits for ProBandit’s A List (+2.91pts), Info Rated (+4.00pts) and NHPM Lays (+6.89pts) while Northern Monkey only just scraped home with a profit of 0.26pts for June.

Winning Racing Tips greatly impressed me this month with another profitable session making it four in a row now. What’s more the profits have been pretty consistent too. It seems as though this is turning out to be a nice reliable go-to service and if this continues for the coming months I may well consider upping my stakes before my subscription period is over. I want to get some more data in the bag before that point though.

We end the horse racing round-up this month as we did last month by taking a quick look at Racing Angles. I allowed their profiling emails and general hints and advice to build up last month but got back on top of things before the Derby came around. Indeed the profiles picked out Pour Moi and a small profit was made on the race. Then came Royal Ascot and things went a bit crazy. There was an email every day of Royal Ascot with a bit of profiling for all the major races. Whether it was an excess of quality racing preventing the profiler from taking as much time as is necessary to analyse each race or me taking some of the advice as stronger than perhaps I should have it I don’t know but it wasn’t a great week for this service. I registered a small loss over the meeting. There were a lot of bets over that period and I feel this service does better when allowed more time to fully analyse trends and race profiles.

Football
None of my dedicated football tipsters cover the minor European leagues that play during the summer or international action such as the Copa America and CONCACAF Gold Cup. As such there have been no bets this month.

Sports
It’s not really a sports bet by any stretch of the imagination but my lay of the kid singer on Britain’s Got Talent (I’ve already forgotten his name!) makes me the standout sports tipster in my portfolio this month. Sports betting is a very loose category for me and I tend to include novelty bets in there too. As they are so few and far between I figured why not? I used to refer to sports betting as miscellaneous betting but then it got so dominated by sports tipsters that I rebranded it. The new classification doesn’t always work as I wouldn’t claim to be any sort of sports tipster but now and then I spot an opportunity that is too good to pass up and it’s not always in the world of sports.

Anyway, let’s see how the professional tipsters did this month. It was another silent month from The Sportsman with no sports bets advised. There were some racing bets (see above) but nothing on the main sports service. I knew it was a fairly quiet operation on the sporting front but I perhaps didn’t expect it to be this quiet. To be fair to Scott though the service winds down for the summer when he takes a break from tipping (something I knew before I signed up) and there may not have been a great deal of sporting action to get your betting teeth into during April and May. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when the service returns in August though.

It was a mixed month from the Oxon Press services really. The Insider put in a month that is so typically them, losing 5.00pts. It’s a service that sees quite a few losing periods punctuated by significant wins as the focus is primarily ante-post betting so losing a few points a month is pretty much the norm. Bet Bank Alerts managed to put together a reasonable set of figures to return a profit of 3.62pts during June while Sports Bet USA struggled to a loss of 2.08pts. A special mention for that service though as the powers that be have finally recognised their bet delivery methods were sub-optimal and they will now release bets by 4pm UK time (rather than 7pm) and will update the website even when there is no bet. This is a significant improvement and hopefully means many of the difficulties I previously had with this service will be resolved.

Poker
I’m delighted to say I haven’t been anywhere near the poker tables at all this month. OK, technically that’s not entirely true as I have tried to log onto Full Tilt a couple of times since I received emails (from rival poker rooms, I might add) saying the Alderney Gambling Control Commission had suspended Full Tilt’s operating licence until further notice. There’s been nothing official from Full Tilt on this one though. I would have like to have seen an explanation of what’s happened from them and some reassurance that funds on deposit with them are safe, not that I have much more than a couple of hundred there but all the same I would like some assurance I can get it back soon enough. But nothing. I honestly have no idea what the story is. In many ways it makes me glad poker is no longer a major part of my gambling strategy.

Other
None.

  1. Chris
    August 14, 2011 at 2:21 am

    Hi, greetings from Norway. Just found your site thorugh a random search for betting blogs, as I am in the process of turning to betting for a living. Anyway, you have an excellent blog, and I can relate to your situation in many ways. I’ve studied maths and acturary sciences, but wokring a 9-5 job for boring/ grumpy supervisors just don’t appeal any more. I am very into systems, and have spent nearly all my free time last 3 years gathering data and angles into profitability. Perhaps I too will start a blog when I start betting in 2012.

  1. July 4, 2011 at 11:15 am

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