Monthly Review – March 2011

Overview
I guess the main headline this month is Adrian Massey’s retirement and the fall out from that. I’ve had a couple of weeks to get my head round it now and have assessed the impact on my portfolio. I’ve lost quite a few systems/services but I have topped my portfolio up with a few new services too. So it is goodbye to Easy Money Lays, Classic Lays, Premier Lays, Market Leaders and all the Nailed On services and hello to the Sportsman (including Sportsman Racing and Sportsman Trades), Piecost (a tipster on the Secret Betting Club forum) and Winning Racing Tips all of whom are new to the portfolio this month.

The loss of the Massey ratings and associated systems was always going to make for a tricky month but I am pleased to say I ended pretty much spot on the targets I set myself. I may have to review my future targets in light of the changes I have made to my portfolio but for now things are progressing fairly nicely.

Horses
The Classic Lays and Premier Lays systems had been suspended for a while now so the fact that they can no longer operate following Adrian Massey’s retirement is hardly a disaster. The Market Leaders system was really starting to flourish though, putting on 10.07pts in March – and bear in mind it was only running for around two-thirds of the month. With those three systems now unavailable I was forced to close Unity Racing, which is a real shame. It hadn’t gone entirely to plan admittedly but its closure makes me feel like a failure on the tipster front. It’s not clear whether the Market Leaders system could have turned things round for the site as a whole but we will never mind. Oh well, I can’t be good at everything!

The Nailed On services had a mixed time of it before they were discontinued this month. The Progeny system had been on my Watch List as I had noted it needed to improve if it were to remain part of my portfolio. It lost 19.00pts in March so probably would have been dropped soon enough anyway had it not been retired this month. NailedOn AW added 15.05 to what had been a good start to the year but that’s gone now. HSR lost a further 2.10pts and the NailedOn Lays lost 1.66pts.

With the discontinued services rounded up lets crack on with those that remain an active part of my gambling portfolio. Top of the pile this month was the Ladies Lays system with a profit of 13.14pts. Not too far behind came Northern Monkey, recovering 9.57pts of February’s losses. There were also profits for ProBandit’s A List (+4.09pts), Lay’em (+2.34pts), LTO3 (+0.90pts) and Claiming Jockey (+0.68pts) while NH Media barely registers with +0.02pts.

At the bottom of the heap is Piecost‘s SBC forum system with a loss of 28.34pts. I was only on for the second half of the month and fear I missed some early profits as the official figures show a monthly profit of over 20pts. It’s still very early days though so I’m not worried. The NHPM lay systems drops in behind with a loss of 13.02pts this month while Info Rated lost 0.65pts.

It is too early to go into the figures for the other new racing services but they will be included as of next month.

Football
Another month done and it wouldn’t be right unless the results were dominated by one of the Simplex systems so take a bow Serie A Simplex. A profit of 4,045.40pts is pretty impressive but it comes off the back of a loss of nearly 3,000pts last month. As the Simplex systems utilise a loss-chasing staking plan swings like this should be expected. Anyway, that puts the Serie A Simplex system to bed for this season and it finishes with a profit of slightly under 1,500pts. The stakes were small as this was the first season for this system but it’s still a decent return.

Football Elite had a tricky March and seem to have taken some flak for it based on various forum posts and certain comments Matt has made in his recent emails. Poor fella. He clearly knows the game but for whatever reason things aren’t quite working out for him of late. I don’t feel he has lost his knack, nor that the betting scene has changed in such a way that would affect his edge, so I am happy to plug away as ever. A loss of 6.53pts on the main bets and a further 5.79pts lost on the FE Shortlist bets though.

FBD made 0.86pts as the only other active football tipster this month.

Sports
It was a mixed month for the Oxon Press systems that make up most of my sports betting. There were profits for Bet Bank Alerts and Sports Bet USA but at 0.90pts and 0.34pts respectively these were not big profits. The Insider lost 2.70pts in March but holds some strong ante-post positions that will see profits raked in over the next couple of months or so.

Poker
I’m back on the virtual tables and it’s not really going to plan, if I’m honest. I’m playing low stakes full-ring SnGs as I look to build a bankroll. It just so happens that no-limit hold’em tournaments are where I make money playing poker, at least according to my records, so I have abandoned all ideas of cash game poker for now with a view to concentrating on SnGs. The plan is to build a ‘roll and start moving up the stakes until I reach the point where poker adds a respectable amount to my bottom line on a regular basis. I’m not looking to make a living or go pro, just top up my other gambling profits really.

I made a profit this month of 7.91pts but having played 141 SnGs that only represents a return on investment of 5.61%. That’s really not good enough at this level. According to the experts I should be making something like 15% which means I am earning a little more than a third of what I should be making. Gah! So what’s wrong?

The month started well but seems to have gone downhill a bit. It feels like some of the aggression has gone out of my game, certainly when it gets short-handed. I’m not restealing like I used to and am playing altogether too passively. I think. It’s hard to be sure with poker as there is a tendency to change one’s game based on too small a hand/tourney sample and thus becomes results oriented. But I think I am playing rather more passively than I used to and also feel I have lost my focus and concentration a bit too. I need to work on ways to bring that back into my game as that has always been a problem for me. It feels at times as though I am playing poker purely as a game, as entertainment rather than as a profit-making exercise. I need to control that, for sure.

I’ve also had some bad luck along the way but you can’t blame luck for everything that goes wrong by any means. Ultimately though I have made a profit this month albeit one that is smaller than I would have hoped for but I will plug on with it and hopefully look at my poker in more depth in the near future.

Other
There have been a few Sportsman trades to keep me busy but it is too early to meaningfully comment on their progress.

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  1. April 5, 2011 at 5:51 pm

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